A surprising demographic shift in Multnomah County has sparked an intriguing debate: Will a wealth tax hike be necessary to fund universal preschool?
In Portland, Oregon, a bold initiative was launched in 2020 with a voter-approved income wealth tax. The goal? To provide free preschool to all 3- and 4-year-olds in the county by 2030. But here's where it gets controversial: the county might achieve this goal much sooner than expected, and with fewer children than initially predicted.
Last week, a demographer working with a task force revealed that Multnomah County is projected to have around 4,000 fewer preschool-age children in 2030 compared to earlier estimates. This demographic shift is due to more families leaving the county than new children being born.
When the program began, it was anticipated that there would be 11,200 kids aged 3-4 in the county. However, the latest projections suggest that only 7,500 seats are needed to reach the goal of universal access.
The program is on track to meet this goal within the next year. It has already offered 7,500 seats for the 2026-2027 academic year to qualified preschools across the county, and they'll know early next year how many of those offers have been accepted.
And this is the part most people miss: the county commissioners are now re-evaluating the program's tax structure, with options on the table including indexing the tax to account for inflation or even reducing or eliminating a planned 0.8% increase scheduled for 2027.
County Chair Jessica Vega Pederson hinted that if the program doesn't require as much funding as initially thought, they might consider a smaller increase or no increase at all. She said, "If we don't need that increase, and we can provide universal access within the program's intended shape, that's fantastic."
Commissioners Meghan Moyer and Julie Brim Edwards agreed, stating they would support a smaller or no increase if the task force's spring projections hold true.
The commission is expected to vote on these changes by August 2026. So, will Multnomah County need a wealth tax hike to fund universal preschool? The answer might just be a resounding "no." But what do you think? Should they reconsider the tax increase if the program is on track to succeed with less funding? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
