As 2025 draws to a close, the world braces for a tumultuous 2026, shaped by the lingering effects of unresolved conflicts. The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) presents its annual review, offering a glimpse into the most influential policy papers and articles that captivated readers throughout the year.
The Trump Effect: A Dominant Force
The year was dominated by the actions and policies of US President Donald Trump. His trade war and the unveiling of his National Security Strategy cast a long shadow over global affairs. ECFR's European Sentiment Compass, in its fourth edition, argues that the current transatlantic relationship is a byproduct of a broader culture war. Pawel Zerka, the author, draws an intriguing parallel with the film The Truman Show, suggesting that Europe is trapped within the narrative while Trump's America pulls the strings.
Global Flashpoints: From Ukraine to Africa
The situation in Ukraine remains a focal point, with ceasefire negotiations revolving around Trump's 28-point 'peace plan' and disputes over Russia's frozen assets. Trump's tariffs and involvement in Venezuela have further escalated tensions in America's backyard. Meanwhile, the EU grapples with defining its role amidst complex global developments, including enlargement and economic stability.
Across Africa, countries like the Central African Republic and Mali are vulnerable to Russian disinformation and military intervention. In Ethiopia, drone warfare has added a brutal dimension to conflicts. In the Middle East, the Israel-Palestine ceasefire remains fragile, with Palestine seeking long-term political solutions.
A Year of Controversial Policy Briefs and Commentaries
The year's top policy briefs and commentaries offer diverse insights into the global political landscape:
Trump's Impact on Global Public Opinion: Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash explore how Trump's return has reshaped global perceptions, leading to declining trust in US leadership and a call for Europe's independent action.
Resisting Trumpian Coercion: Tobias Gehrke highlights Europe's underutilized economic and regulatory power to counter potential coercion by the Trump administration.
The Long Shadow of Trumpism: Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka analyze how Trump's presidency has eroded European confidence in US reliability and reshaped public opinion across the continent.
Trump's Plan for Europe: Célia Belin argues that Trumpism aims to weaken the EU by empowering nationalist forces within.
Hungary's Lessons for Trump: Jeremy Shapiro and Zsuzsanna Végh demonstrate how Viktor Orban's Hungary serves as a model for illiberal governance and media manipulation, resonating with Trump's agenda.
Trump's Influence on European Politics: Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard discuss how Trump has accelerated political shifts in Europe, legitimizing far-right movements and eroding democratic values.
Resisting Trump's Culture War: Pawel Zerka warns that importing US-style culture wars could deepen European polarization, emphasizing the need to preserve liberal democratic norms.
Drone Warfare in Africa: Zecharias Zelalem illustrates how drone technology is transforming warfare in Africa, as seen in Ethiopia, and lowering barriers to military escalation.
Europe's Defense in a Changing World: Camille Grand argues for Europe's rapid defense enhancement due to reduced US security commitments.
Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare: Will Brown examines Russia's growing influence in Africa through disinformation and political manipulation, urging a unified European response.
Controversial Commentaries and Policy Alerts
The year also saw thought-provoking commentaries and policy alerts that sparked debate:
Drones in Ukraine: Ulrike Franke highlights how inexpensive drones are changing warfare and challenging Western military strategies.
The Minsk Agreements: Marie Dumoulin analyzes the failure of diplomatic frameworks based on false assumptions about Russia, leading to entrenched conflicts.
American Elites' Opposition to Trump: Jeremy Shapiro explores the deep-seated concerns among American elites about democratic erosion and global leadership destabilization.
Preventing War in Europe: Claudia Major, Carlo Masala, Christian Mölling, and Jana Puglierin propose a five-point plan for sustained deterrence, military capabilities, political unity, and strategic planning.
Turkey's Role in Syria: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş discusses Turkey's military, governance, and economic strategies in northern Syria, aiming for long-term influence.
Iran's Pragmatic Partnerships: Erik Skare explains Iran's ties with Hamas and Islamic Jihad as alliances of convenience, driven by shared enemies rather than ideology.
Trump's Disregard for Europe: Jeremy Shapiro attributes Trump's neglect of Europe to his transactional worldview, devaluing alliances and multilateralism.
US-ICC Tensions: Anthony Dworkin sheds light on US resistance to the International Criminal Court, rooted in sovereignty concerns and legal exposure.
Drone Proliferation: Ulrike Franke explores how drones are changing the nature of warfare globally, with implications for Ukraine and beyond.
Migration Challenges in Europe: Arturo Varvelli and Angela Ziccardi argue that the EU needs a unified migration strategy, as externalization harms migrants and weakens cohesion.
Policy Alerts: Navigating Global Challenges
ECFR's policy alerts addressed pressing issues, including:
US-China Tech War: Herman Quarles van Ufford examines Europe's vulnerability in the US-China tech and trade war, using the Nexperia case as an example.
Trump-Putin Summit: Kirill Shamiev highlights Europe's marginalization in great-power diplomacy and the risks of relying solely on US leadership.
Gaza Ceasefire: Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada emphasize the need for coordinated diplomacy to achieve a sustainable Gaza ceasefire.
Putin's Rhetoric: Anton Barbashin interprets Vladimir Putin's foreign policy speech as a long-term strategy of confrontation with the EU.
Bosnia's Secessionist Threat: Adnan Ćerimagić discusses how Republika Srpska's actions challenge Bosnia's stability and the EU's credibility in the Balkans.
Europe's Trade Concessions: Tobias Gehrke analyzes Europe's failed attempt to appease Trump through trade, which did not alter US behavior.
Trump's Greenland Obsession: Katrine Westgaard urges Europeans to address rising Arctic geopolitics and regional security concerns.
China's Rare Earth Leverage: Janka Oertel warns that China's control over rare earths exposes Europe's strategic vulnerability.
Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts: Coline Le Piouff argues that the EU must step up to fill the leadership void created by US aid retrenchment.
Gaza Crisis: Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada call for European diplomatic pressure and humanitarian action to prevent further escalation in Gaza.
As the year ends, ECFR invites readers to reflect on these insights and engage in discussions about the future of global affairs. What are your thoughts on the dominant themes of 2025? Do you agree with the analyses presented, or do you have alternative interpretations? Share your opinions and contribute to the ongoing dialogue on these critical issues.
